Ideas about policy, people, and time.

This paper studies how the removal of China’s deposit-rate ceiling changed the transmission of reserve-requirement-ratio policy through the banking system. Using bank-level difference-in-differences evidence, I show that deposit rates became more responsive to RRR changes after liberalization, even as average deposit rates declined. A structural deposit-pricing model highlights stronger monetary transmission through the deposit channel alongside greater pressure on bank profitability.

This paper studies how pension promises affect fertility decisions and the long-run sustainability of public debt. An overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility, pay-as-you-go pensions, and debt rollover can feature multiple demographic steady states, linking pension design to the stability of the future tax base.

We revisit the Fisher equation by distinguishing between a hypothetical perfectly illiquid safe asset and the liquid safe assets used in monetary-policy implementation. The framework clarifies how liquidity and collateral services affect the relationship between nominal rates, inflation, consumption growth, and asset prices.

This paper develops a game-theoretic framework for censorship and circumvention as an adaptive strategic interaction. It characterizes equilibria in one-shot and repeated settings and shows how traffic variance and seasonality can become strategic tools when risk-averse censors face classification errors and collateral damage.

Using CHARLS panel data, we study how pension integration affects household organization, migration, and elderly well-being in rural China. The project links pension reform to three-generation family arrangements and the allocation of caregiving responsibilities.

Using China Family Panel Studies household rosters from 2010 to 2022, I reconstruct mother-level fertility histories and find that son preference remains behaviorally important in low-fertility China. The continuation response is concentrated among rural, agricultural-hukou, lower-education, lower-income, and earlier-cohort families.